Integration of CEA in MSP by utilising PlanWise4Blue (ESE 1) - Bulgarian Black Sea test site#
Description#
Introduction
PW4B comprises a combination of tools, such as Cumulative Effect Assessment (CEA), designed to provide insights into various ecological and environmental aspects that are crucial for MSP and sustainable development. It provides user-friendly solutions for the assessment of the cumulative impacts of human activities on diverse natural values and resources.
Scenarios
Three scenarios were explored with CEA for the three vulnerable mobile species, mammals: Delphinus delphis, Phocoena phocoeana and Tursiops truncatus:
Present (Scenario 0): corresponds to current human use conditions (military areas, shipping).
Scenario 1: analyses cumulative effects of wind farms, aquaculture, representing a future state (planned aquaculture and OWF), while maintaining current shipping and military zones.
Scenario 2: reflects a scenario in which all human uses remain the same, except shipping intensity is doubled in the same areas.
Results obtained
The information available for fishing is limited and incorporating MPAs into CEA requires careful consideration. MPAs are zones where most of key human activities are restricted or prohibited, so their inclusion would not typically occur within the CEA itself but rather in subsequent integrative analyses as measures to prevent or reduce impacts.
These analyses would integrate CEA results with conservation tools (e.g., MPAs) and other dimensions within a broader MSP framework. It is essential to have a clear understanding of the specific objectives of the conservation measures and, in particular, a semi-quantitative or quantitative assessment of its actual effects on the target species. This is an interesting consideration for a future exercise. Due the coarse resolution of the spatial data for three marine mammals and because they are mobile species, the CEA application goes beyond the test site scope and was extended to the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Bulgaria.
In summary, three outputs were obtained. The maps present the results for the alternative scenarios for the three marine mammal species considered.
All three outputs provide a clear gradient of conditions, including the current situation, the inclusion of planned activities, and their intensification, providing informative alternatives for strategic and spatial planning actions.
Stancheva, M., et al., (2025). Site specific solutions for accelerating biodiversity protection and restoration in MSP (Deliverable – D5.3., under the WP5 of MSP4BIO project (GA n°101060707)). URL: https://msp4bio.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/D5.3-Test-sites-planning-solutions-revised-Final-checked-260325-for-website.pdf
