Q 55 - How to anticipate and address climate change within a MPA network?#

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Answers#

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Operational approaches

ESE1 - Ecological toolkit#

Practices: Scoping Data collection and presentation Analysis and diagnosis Prioritisation and designation Implementation and management Monitoring and evaluation
Spatial scales: Transboundary / sea basin National Regional / local
Protection regimes: Strict protection Non-strict protection
Marine zones: Coastal zone Deep sea Offshore zone

Criteria classes: 1.1 Functional 1.1.1 Vulnerability 1.1.2 Stability 1.1.3 Functional hotspots 1.1.4. Life cycle critical areas 1.1.5 Climate-smart potential 1.2 Structural

Criteria

Operational approaches: (Method) Dispersion and connectivity modelling (Tool) CC Analog Base Velocities

Implementation details

The analysis of species migration pathways under climate change is all the most important for the design of MPA networks. MPA networks are designed to enhance connectivity in its many facets, from functional to structural connectivity, considering movement of living organisms (larval or adults) and the flow of nutrients and materials. To anticipate and address climate change within a MPA network, in the scoping phase (setting the assessment, Deliverable D3.3, page 21), managers need to identify the factors characterizing connectivity for their specific MPAs within a specific marine region. Connectivity can be characterized by intertwined concepts of the structural and functional connectivity – the former being the physical characteristics of the seascape, as habitats and ecosystems supporting the flow of materials, biomass or energy, and the latter representing all the movements of organisms that result in the exchange of genes, biomass or energy between heterogeneous habitat patches across MPAs. Once these factors and targets are specified, managers can address how climate change can influence both structural and functional connectivity through assessing exposure (deliverable 3.3, page 38), sensitivity (Deliverable D3.3, page 58), and vulnerability (deliverable 3.3, page 93) of individual MPAs or species and habitats characterizing connectivity, and through modeling ecological dynamics (through species or larval movements) connecting MPAs. Several strategies can be put in place. Here below some examples: - Exposure assessment (Deliverable D3.3, page 38) can be run for all the MPAs within the region to identify which MPA is more exposed, and understand the effects on the entire network from the local effects on the network’s nodes. - Sensitivity assessment (Deliverable D3.3, page 58) can be run for the species connecting MPAs through their movement or migration, aiming at characterizing the effects of climate change on adults connectivity. Climate induced changes in larval connectivity can be quantitatively assessed at present and under climate change projections across emission scenarios, eventually based on lagrangian and habitat suitability models (in case competences, skills, and budget is available). This will help build knowledge of actual and future connections between areas of interest and identify potential sources and sinks inside the network. Sensitivity of habitats can be also assessed, for instance, considering invasive species or invasion routes within the MPA network. Once exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability are assessed, managers can evaluate risk factors affecting the MPA network, together with an assessment of uncertainty associated to the risks. This will inform the definition of effective management actions to adapt or mitigate climate change effects on the network, as actions can be designed considering the local and global effects on network connectivity. Collaboration and coordination in monitoring across the MPA network will be essential to monitoring changes across network nodes.

Notes

Cambra E., Conversi A., Whatley L., Menegon S., Beckaert M., Bongiorni L., Calado H., Pinarbasi K., Barboza F., Lauri K., Sciascia R., Cristina A., Marasovic T, Boudy C., Alloncle N., Gissi E. (2024). Guidance for including climate change scenarios in protection and prioritization strategies for Marine Protected Areas development. Deliverable D3.3, under the WP3 of MSP4BIO project (GA n°101060707)

References

  • Cambra E., Conversi A., Whatley L., Menegon S., Beckaert M., Bongiorni L., Calado H., Pinarbasi K., Barboza F., Lauri K., Sciascia R., Cristina A., Marasovic T, Boudy C., Alloncle N., Gissi E. (2024). Guidance for including climate change scenarios in protection and prioritization strategies for Marine Protected Areas development. Deliverable D3.3, under the WP3 of MSP4BIO project (GA n°101060707)