Q 55 - How to anticipate and address climate change within a MPA network?#

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Operational approaches

ESE1 - Ecological toolkit#

Practices: Scoping Data collection and presentation Analysis and diagnosis Prioritisation and designation Implementation and management Monitoring and evaluation
Spatial scales: Transboundary / sea basin National Regional / local
Protection regimes: Strict protection Non-strict protection
Marine zones: Coastal zone Deep sea Offshore zone

Criteria classes: 1.1 Functional 1.1.1 Vulnerability 1.1.2 Stability 1.1.3 Functional hotspots 1.1.4. Life cycle critical areas 1.1.5 Climate-smart potential 1.2 Structural

Criteria

Operational approaches: (Method) Dispersion and connectivity modelling (Tool) CC Analog Base Velocities

Implementation details

The analysis of species migration pathways under climate change is all the most important for the design of MPA networks. Designed to enhance connectivity (larval and adult), MPA networks will probably used as migration route for many species under changing conditions.

To anticipate the effect of climate change, it is necessary to project the future conditions using anomalies analysis to assess which areas of a network will be influenced by CC. Once the influence is supposed, it is important to assess the trends that the species will follow inside the area. Two elements must be taken into account to anticipate climate effects: - Adults connectivity: for adults, a selection of Vulnerable species and highly opportunistics species regarding to climate change can be identified as priority using a Trait-based Vulnerability Assessment (CAMBRA et al., 2024 . Chapter 3.3 Sensitivity and followings chapters). Then combined analysis of climate-analogs and species’ bioclimatic velocities analysis can be performed to assess potential future trends and pathways of migration under different climatic scenarios (chapter 3.2.4). The same approach could be used to evaluate invasive risk and identify potential invasive routes (Azzurro and D’Amen, 2022) through the network. When the probable routes are identified under different climatic pathways, an analysis of the accuracy of the current MPA network could be performed to assess the areas still relevant for the conservation of the species of concern or if it is necessary to implement new potential targeted areas. - Larval connectivity: the maximum acceptable distance is today estimated at 15-20km based mainly on larval dispersal models (Mora, 2008; Shanks et al., 2003) but should be reevaluated with the future current changes, eventually based on lagrangian and habitat suitability models as proxy. This will lead to develop a better knowledge of actual and future connection between areas of interest and identify potential sources and sinks inside the network.

Then, to adress the climate effects it is necessary to promote the development of a global prismatic scenario, ensuring the safegard of replicat of the same management target (Function, Species…). To facilitate the operationality of climate protection and compensate for the impossibility to protect all the conservation, mitigation and adaptivity objectives on a single MPA, the network aims to “share the burden”. The coherence of the networks under climate change should be structural but also in the objectives, protecting the highest variety of targets following the prismatic scenarios (chapter 5.3.1, including conservation, mitigation and adaptation pathways and relative targets). Building a coherent networks supports monitoring approaches, essential to verify the relevance of the models and ensure an adapted management and planning but also to evaluate potential management success (chapter 6.3 Insight for monitoring).

Notes

Cambra et al (2024). Guidance for including climate change scenarios in protection and prioritization strategies for Marine Protected Areas development. Deliverable D3.3, under the WP3 of MSP4BIO project (GA n°101060707)