Q 54 - How to anticipate and address climate change within MPA?#

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Operational approaches

ESE1 - Ecological toolkit#

Practices: Scoping Data collection and presentation Analysis and diagnosis Prioritisation and designation Implementation and management Monitoring and evaluation
Spatial scales: Transboundary / sea basin National Regional / local
Protection regimes: Strict protection Non-strict protection
Marine zones: Coastal zone Deep sea Offshore zone

Criteria classes: 1 Ecological and genetic criteria 1.1 Functional 1.1.1 Vulnerability 1.1.2 Stability 1.1.3 Functional hotspots 1.1.4. Life cycle critical areas 1.1.5 Climate-smart potential 1.2 Structural

Criteria

Implementation details

To anticipate and address climate change within an MPA, it is necessary to define and model future probable scenarios inside the MPA and perform a risk assessment based on each of these scenarios. The MSP4BIO climate-related guidance is dedicated to support managers in this process (CAMBRA et al., 2024) and as such we highly recommend to read it carefully and use it as a basis for analysis. To perform the analysis, ensure to be supported by a modeler.

Different key components need to be integrated to answer this question:

Anticipation: The anticipation of CC incidence on a given MPA: initiate by evaluating the climate risk inside MPA boundaries. Here are presented different solutions according to the level of expected complexity and the knowledge level. 1. Anomalies assessment: in this case, only the physical component is used to evaluate the existence and potential intensity of CC incidence inside the area. 2. Climate velocities: climate velocities analysis are particularly suitable to integrate connectivity and species movements induced by climate change. Nevertheless it aims to integrate projections in a broader area than a single MPA or when regarding species, to establish a list of species of prior interest as it is particularly time and data-consuming to project velocities for the whole ecosystem. Performing species-based vulnerability assessment could support the selection process. 3. Species-based vulnerability assessment: if the framework of the analysis is limited to some species previously selected because of their ecological importance (functions, services related to criteria: food web structure, etc…), their supposed sensitivity/interest (e.g., adaptivity potential) under CC or because of the management plan of the MPA (e.g., flagship species), a vulnerability assessment could be particularly interesting to evaluate potential future trends for the species per se (movement, stress, maintenance…) and as such highlight some management priorities.

All these methods are presented and developed in the chapter 3, Section 3.2.4.1 “Methods for climate exposure assessment” (CAMBRA et al., 2024). For vulnerability assessment and prioritization exercise, we highly recommand to refer to Table 2 (chapter 2.5) and chapter 4. They will provide some future scenarios to create a scenarios portfolio that will support any MPA decision process to address climate change effects.

Addressing climate-change inside the MPA depends on the objectives that the MPA (promote adaptation, mitigation…) which depends on the MPA location and climate potential, but also until what level the MPA could integrate climate in their management priorities. A list of types of areas and a presentation of scenarios can be found in CAMBRA et al., 2024, chapter 5.1 and more generally in chapter 5. Each of these climate-smart MPAs are defined by flagship species and MPA priorities. A list of climate-smart criteria for MPA and MPA networks can be found in chapter 6 to support MPA transition towards more climate-smart designs and management according to the current state of knowledge.

There are also good practices that need to be promoted such as developing a dedicated monitoring inside the area and promoting collaboration with adjacent MPAs to ensure the early recognition of environmental changes and share experiences and responsibilities between MPAs, as they don’t share the same role, importance or have the same potential when facing climate regulation.

Criteria that can be useful in answering this question are: 1.1.1 Vulnerability - Traits-based Adaptivity, Sensitivity, Resilience/Recovery, Resistance, Species Vulnerability to Climatic and Anthropogenic stressors 1.1.2 Stability - General Adaptivity, Redundancy 1.1.3 Functional hotspots - Food web structure, Presence of key functional species, Key functional areas 1.1.4. Life cycle critical areas - Refuge area 1.1.5 Climate-smart potential - Concentrative Potential of Species of interest, Potential for mitigation, Potential for Adaptation, Connectivity Potential, Climatic stability

Notes

Cambra et al (2024). Guidance for including climate change scenarios in protection and prioritization strategies for Marine Protected Areas development. Deliverable D3.3, under the WP3 of MSP4BIO project (GA n°101060707)

ESE3 - Trade-offs method for protections and restoration in MSP#

Practices: Scoping Data collection and presentation Analysis and diagnosis Prioritisation and designation Implementation and management Monitoring and evaluation
Spatial scales: Transboundary / sea basin National Regional / local
Protection regimes: Strict protection Non-strict protection
Marine zones: Coastal zone Deep sea Offshore zone

Operational approaches: (Method) Trade-off for MPA Design (Method) Participatory mapping

Implementation details

Several strategies can be implemented:

  1. Incorporate Climate Projections: Integrate climate change scenarios into spatial conservation plans, as outlined in the guidelines produced by Deliverable 4.3. This enables planners to consider potential future changes and develop resilient strategies (page 14).

  2. Participatory Mapping: Engage stakeholders in participatory mapping exercises to assess local perceptions of climate change. This involvement can help identify vulnerable areas and ecosystem services impacted by climate variability, ensuring that local knowledge informs management decisions (pages 21, 32).

  3. Ecosystem Services Assessment: Value and assess the ecosystem services provided by marine environments to understand their role in mitigating climate impacts. This understanding aids in developing conservation strategies that safeguard these services while supporting community needs (page 23).

  4. Scenario Development and Trade-Off Analysis: Create scenarios reflecting various trade-offs between conservation and economic activities, incorporating stakeholder feedback to balance ecological preservation and socio-economic development (page 24).

  5. Adaptive Management: Implement adaptive management practices that allow for flexibility in response to new information and changing conditions resulting from climate change. This approach encourages continuous monitoring and modification of management strategies (page 21).

Notes

Gutierrez D., Calado H., De Bruyn A., et al., (2024). Trade-offs method for protection and restoration in MSP – ESE3 (Deliverable – D4.3., under the WP4 of MSP4BIO project (GA n° 101060707)).