Q 54 - How to anticipate and address climate change within MPA?#

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Operational approaches

ESE1 - Ecological toolkit#

Practices: Scoping Data collection and presentation Analysis and diagnosis Prioritisation and designation Implementation and management Monitoring and evaluation
Spatial scales: Transboundary / sea basin National Regional / local
Protection regimes: Strict protection Non-strict protection
Marine zones: Coastal zone Deep sea Offshore zone

Criteria classes: 1 Ecological and genetic criteria 1.1 Functional 1.1.1 Vulnerability 1.1.2 Stability 1.1.3 Functional hotspots 1.1.4. Life cycle critical areas 1.1.5 Climate-smart potential 1.2 Structural

Criteria

Implementation details

Addressing climate-change inside the MPA depends on the objectives and targeted species and habitats of each MPA. Moreover, it depends on the local and regional conditions of the MPA. Several strategies can be implemented depending on available data, information, and knowledge, and on competences and skills of personnel in charge of the analysis:

  1. Sensitivity assessment: run a sensitivity assessment for habitats and species targeted by the MPA. Collect knowledge and evidence for species to run a sensitivity analysis to climatic stressors (Deliverable 3.3., page 58), also considering data availability. Use local ecological knowledge for species within the MPA and in the marine region ecologically relevant for the targeted MPA.

  2. Exposure assessment: consider the anomalies and trends of several climatic stressors in the marine region where the MPA is located to explore climate change exposure of the MPA. Depending on available data, the analysis can be performed at different spatial scales depending on the available data. In case long-term series of data are available, the analysis can be performed within and around the MPA; in case only remote sensing data are available, the analysis can be performed for the marine region where the MPA in located (Deliverable 3.3., section 3.2, exposure assessment, page 38) .

  3. Climate velocities metrics: in case of available budget and skills, consider modelling climate velocity metrics in the marine region of the MPA considering past trends and future climate projections across emission scenarios. The analysis can target habitats and species of priority of conservation for the MPA. Climate velocity metrics describe the speed and direction that a species at a given point in space would need to move to remain within its climatic niche (Deliverable 3.3, page 53).

  4. Vulnerability assessment: if you are able to run the sensitivity and exposure analysis, combine the results to run a vulnerability assessment (Deliverable 3.3, page 93). Which can be run qualitatively or quantitatively depending on the available knowledge and data.

5. Uncertainty analysis: consider uncertainty types and levels in your analysis of potential climate change effects drafted according to strategies 1-4 presented above. These are not-exclusive strategies that can be put in place to consider climate change within a MPA. There are other good practices that can be promoted (see Cambra et al. 2024), such as developing a dedicated monitoring for MPA targeted species, monitoring invasive species within the MPA, and promoting collaboration with adjacent MPAs to ensure the early recognition of environmental changes and share experiences and collaborating among MPAs.

Criteria that can be useful in answering this question are: 1.1.1 Vulnerability - Traits-based Adaptivity, Sensitivity, Resilience/Recovery, Resistance, Species Vulnerability to Climatic and Anthropogenic stressors 1.1.2 Stability - General Adaptivity, Redundancy 1.1.3 Functional hotspots - Food web structure, Presence of key functional species, Key functional areas 1.1.4. Life cycle critical areas - Refuge area 1.1.5 Climate-smart potential - Concentrative Potential of Species of interest, Potential for mitigation, Potential for Adaptation, Connectivity Potential, Climatic stability

References

  • Cambra E., Conversi A., Whatley L., Menegon S., Beckaert M., Bongiorni L., Calado H., Pinarbasi K., Barboza F., Lauri K., Sciascia R., Cristina A., Marasovic T, Boudy C., Alloncle N., Gissi E. (2024). Guidance for including climate change scenarios in protection and prioritization strategies for Marine Protected Areas development. Deliverable D3.3, under the WP3 of MSP4BIO project (GA n°101060707)

ESE3 - Trade-offs method for protections and restoration in MSP#

Practices: Scoping Data collection and presentation Analysis and diagnosis Prioritisation and designation Implementation and management Monitoring and evaluation
Spatial scales: Transboundary / sea basin National Regional / local
Protection regimes: Strict protection Non-strict protection
Marine zones: Coastal zone Deep sea Offshore zone

Operational approaches: (Method) Trade-off for MPA Design (Method) Participatory mapping

Implementation details

Several strategies can be implemented:

  1. Incorporate Climate Projections: Integrate climate change scenarios into spatial conservation plans, as outlined in the guidelines produced by Deliverable 4.3. This enables planners to consider potential future changes and develop resilient strategies (page 14).

  2. Participatory Mapping: Engage stakeholders in participatory mapping exercises to assess local perceptions of climate change. This involvement can help identify vulnerable areas and ecosystem services impacted by climate variability, ensuring that local knowledge informs management decisions (pages 21, 32).

  3. Ecosystem Services Assessment: Value and assess the ecosystem services provided by marine environments to understand their role in mitigating climate impacts. This understanding aids in developing conservation strategies that safeguard these services while supporting community needs (page 23).

  4. Scenario Development and Trade-Off Analysis: Create scenarios reflecting various trade-offs between conservation and economic activities, incorporating stakeholder feedback to balance ecological preservation and socio-economic development (page 24).

  5. Adaptive Management: Implement adaptive management practices that allow for flexibility in response to new information and changing conditions resulting from climate change. This approach encourages continuous monitoring and modification of management strategies (page 21).

References

  • Trade-offs method for protection and restoration in MSP (ESE3). Deliverable – D4.3., under the WP4 of MSP4BIO project (GA n° 101060707)).

    This report presents the participatory creation of integrated trade-off scenarios within the MSP4BIO project, aiming to improve the management of marine spaces and safeguard ecosystem services.

    The outcomes of this deliverable provide detailed Guidelines for applying trade-off methodology for MPA design. These scenarios aim to assess and negotiate the consequences of diverse actions and strategies regarding the spatial and strategic management of marine areas. The key element is comprehending how various human activities influence and are influenced by the ecosystem’s services and exploring potential ways for negotiating solutions. The outcomes, particularly the trade-off scenarios, will be integrated into practical tools and frameworks, aiding decision-making processes related to marine resource management.

    This method was designed by the MSP4BIO team members and experts and developed collaboratively with stakeholders to understand the perspectives linked to protected marine areas and potential trade-offs in which specific actions may positively or negatively impact ecosystems and human well-being.

    It was tested by the different test sites of the MSP4BIO project, and the outcomes will be integrated into the ESE 3, more specifically by the Task 4.4 MPAs and MSP Ecological-Socio-Economic integrated management