Q 56 - How to anticipate changes in biotopes due to climate change?#

Narrower “Questions”
Related sites

Answers#

skinparam classFontColor automatic skinparam componentStyle rectangle skinparam roundCorner 15 scale 4/5 hide stereotype <style> element { MaximumWidth 150 MinimumWidth 150 HorizontalAlignment center } .ety { MinimumWidth 20 BackGroundColor #00000000 FontColor #00000000 LineColor #00000000 FontSize 1 Padding 0 Margin 0 } </style> package Practices { [Scoping] as p1 [[/elements/practices/practice1]] #ADD1B2 [Data collection and presentation] as p2 [[/elements/practices/practice2]] #ADD1B2 [Analysis and diagnosis] as p3 [[/elements/practices/practice3]] #ADD1B2 [Prioritisation and designation] as p4 [[/elements/practices/practice4]] #ADD1B2 [Implementation and management] as p5 [[/elements/practices/practice5]] #DDDDDD [Monitoring and evaluation] as p6 [[/elements/practices/practice6]] #DDDDDD (E1) <<ety>> (E2) <<ety>> (E3) <<ety>> (E4) <<ety>> (E5) <<ety>> (E6) <<ety>> (E7) <<ety>> (E8) <<ety>> p1 -[thickness=5]-> p2 p2 -[thickness=5]-> p3 p3 -[thickness=5]-> p4 p4 -[thickness=5]-> p5 p5 -[thickness=5]-> p6 } package OperationalApproaches { package CoreMethods { [Climate change impact assessment] as op11 [[/elements/operational_approaches/operational_approach11]] #DarkRed;text:white } [CC Analog Base Velocities] as op5 [[/elements/operational_approaches/operational_approach5]] #GoldenRod [Trait-based Vulnerability Assessment] as op12 [[/elements/operational_approaches/operational_approach12]] #GoldenRod op11 --> op5 op5 -[hidden]-> op12 op5 -[#001c7f,thickness=2]-> p1 op12 -[#b1400d,thickness=2]-> p1 op5 -[#001c7f,thickness=2]-> p2 op12 -[#b1400d,thickness=2]-> p2 op5 -[#001c7f,thickness=2]-> p3 op12 -[#b1400d,thickness=2]-> p3 } OperationalApproaches -right[hidden]- Practices

Operational approaches

ESE1 - Ecological toolkit#

Practices: Scoping Data collection and presentation Analysis and diagnosis
Spatial scales: Transboundary / sea basin National Regional / local
Protection regimes: Strict protection Non-strict protection
Marine zones: Coastal zone Deep sea Offshore zone

Criteria classes: 1.1.1 Vulnerability 1.1.2 Stability 1.1.3 Functional hotspots 1.1.5 Climate-smart potential 1.2 Structural

Criteria

Operational approaches: (Tool) CC Analog Base Velocities (Method) Trait-based Vulnerability Assessment

Implementation details

Analysing the future changes in climate requires the modelling of future conditions in an area of interest at different time scales. Use the velocities methods to analyse future climatic trends and trajectories in an area of interest to identify stable and non stable areas (3.2.4 Climate exposure assessment in CAMBRA et al., 2024). Analyse species traits (Sensitivity, Vulnerability, Adaptivity) as a proxy to identify the species at risk or that have potentially adapted to the new conditions in the area and prioritise species to be included in the analysis. Biotic velocities are methods adapted to evaluate future trends in species distribution. Analyse the role of the species in the area (Functionality related to food web structure/trophic level and known function(s) and ecosystem services) to identify potential socio-economic, functional and structural loss or possible transfer of this role (redundancy criterion) to other less sensitive species (refer to the Stability criteria). Under Climate Change, the Redundancy of functions in an area is central as a resistance measure. The combined analysis of climate-analogs and invasive species’ bioclimatic velocities is also a good way to evaluate invasive risk and identify potential invasive routes (Azzurro and D’Amen, 2022) to be taken into consideration in the MSP decision process or to promote attenuation measures.

Develop monitoring to identify the emergence of new stressors and species migrations is a key element.

Notes

Cambra et al (2024). Guidance for including climate change scenarios in protection and prioritization strategies for Marine Protected Areas development. Deliverable D3.3, under the WP3 of MSP4BIO project (GA n°101060707)