Q 65 - How can we assess CC impacts on fishing stocks (e.g. cod and sprat) and develop strategies to protect these species across different life stages (e.g. focusing on nurseries and fishing grounds)?#

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Answers#

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Operational approaches

ESE1 - Ecological toolkit#

Practices: Scoping Data collection and presentation Analysis and diagnosis Prioritisation and designation Implementation and management
Spatial scales: Transboundary / sea basin National Regional / local
Protection regimes: Non-strict protection
Marine zones: Offshore zone

Criteria classes: 1.1.1 Vulnerability 1.1.2 Stability 1.1.3 Functional hotspots 1.1.4. Life cycle critical areas 1.1.5 Climate-smart potential

Criteria

Operational approaches: (Tool) CC Analog Base Velocities (Method) Trait-based Vulnerability Assessment

Implementation details

Considerations:

  • The complexity of climate drivers and their interactions, requiring a multi-faceted approach to assess their impact on species biology.

  • The necessity of integrating both ecological and anthropogenic data to provide a comprehensive analysis.

  • The importance of identifying and protecting critical habitats, particularly nursery grounds, to ensure the resilience of fish populations under changing climate conditions.

Methodological framework

  1. Ecological and climate data integration
    1. Ecological considerations:

      ◦ Utilize existing ecological data on species distribution, critical habitats, and biological thresholds for various climatic stressors (e.g., temperature, salinity) relevant to cod and sprat. ◦ Incorporate nursery and reproductive areas into the analysis to ensure the protection of these critical life stages. ◦ Assess potential habitat loss under different climate scenarios, focusing on short-term (2030), mid-term (2050), and long-term projections.

    2. Climate Data Utilization:

      ◦ Use climate projection tools and available databases (like Bio-Oracle and HELCOM database) to obtain data on sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and other relevant parameters under different SSP scenarios. ◦ Identify potential overlaps between current species distributions and future climatic conditions, focusing on areas where climatic conditions might exceed biological thresholds for stress or mortality.

  2. Fisheries management integration

    1. Fishing pressure analysis:

    • Analyze fishing pressure data (i.e., fishing intensity data provided by ICES) and projected ecological changes to identify areas where fishing may need to be restricted or adapted due to adverse climatic conditions.

    • Calculate the percentage of current fishing areas that might be lost due to climate-driven changes in species distributions and abundance.

    1. Scenario development:

      ◦ Scenario 1: Progressive closure of areas:

      ▪ Prioritize areas for protection based on ecological integrity, focusing on the stability of critical habitats like nursery grounds under climate change. ▪ Integrate trophic relationships and prey availability into the analysis to ensure the overall ecosystem’s resilience.

      ◦ Scenario 2: Transitioning fishing targets:

      ▪ Explore the potential for transitioning fishing activities towards species more resilient to climate change, such as small pelagics like sprat. ▪ Consider the emergence of new species in the Baltic Sea under future climatic conditions and evaluate their potential as new fishing targets.

Discussion points for further development

  • The need for a more detailed analysis of the prey-predator relationships between cod and sprat, and how these interactions might shift under climate change.

  • The importance of validating the proposed approach with climate specialists (Joint HELCOM/Baltic Earth Expert Network on Climate Change) familiar with the Baltic Sea to ensure the robustness of projections and stress thresholds.

  • The potential for integrating additional climate drivers, such as deoxygenation and acidification, into the analysis framework for a more comprehensive understanding of long-term impacts.