CC Analog Base Velocities#
Description#
Climate change impact assessment
Different tools have already or are in the processes of incorporating applications for the analysis of the effects of climate change on relevant natures values. A promising development in the frame of the MSP4BIO is a prototype for the use of analog-based climate velocity for climate adaptation planning withing the Tools4MSP geoplatform.
Source: Kotta et al. (2024) Ecological toolkit (ESE1) for MPAs prioritization and networking. Deliverable – D3.4., under the WP3 of MSP4BIO project (GA n° 101060707)
CC Analog Base Velocities
Tools4MSP infrastructure provides a tool for the calculation of analog-based velocities, a crucial metric for effective adaptation planning in the face of climate change.
Carroll et al. (2015) provided seminal insights into the identification of areas vulnerable to climate change through the concept of Biotic and Climatic Velocity. This framework emphasizes the contrasting vulnerabilities of different ecosystems and regions based on the rate at which they are expected to experience changes in climatic conditions.
the tool employs a nearest-neighbour approach to identify climatically analogous sites, focusing on the entire Mediterranean basin as the focal region. The tool calculates the analog-based velocities by determining the actual distance, in kilometres per year, between two climatically similar locations. Both forward and backward velocities are computed for each site (grid cell). The forward velocity measures the rate at which one must transition from a location with current climatic conditions to the closest site projected to exhibit similar conditions in the future. Elevated forward velocities signal a notable risk to species, suggesting potential challenges in adapting to swiftly evolving environmental circumstances. In contrast, the backward velocity gauges the pace required to revert to a site with anticipated future climatic conditions, originating from the nearest location currently sharing the same climatic conditions. Higher backward velocities indicate potential risks to the stability of the site.
The steps to calculate analog-based velocities, as illustrated in Figure 4.7, are outlined as follows:
Define Analysis Area: The first step involves delineating the analysis area, pref-erably as a closed basin such as the Mediterranean, to mitigate edge effects.
Cell Division: The analysis area is then subdivided into regular cells to facilitate calculations.
Bioclimatic Variables Calculation: Bioclimatic variables, acting as predictors, are computed for both current conditions and future projections within each cell. In the example provided, these variables were derived for two 25-year periods (2006‒2030) and (2031‒2055), although standard climate periods typically span 30 years.
The dataset utilized includes nine bioclimatic variables related to Sea Surface Temperature (SST), specifically: a. Annual Mean Temperature b. Annual Mean Diurnal Range c. Isothermality d. Temperature Seasonality e. Max Temperature of Warmest Month f. Min Temperature of Coldest Month g. Annual Temperature Range h. Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter i. Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter
PCA: A PCA is automatically conducted on the combined space of the nine bio-climatic variables, considering both present and future conditions.
Distance Matrix Calculation: Two distance matrices are computed: one pertaining to cells closest to current climatic conditions (for forward velocity) and another for cells nearest to future climatic conditions (for backward velocity).
6. Introduction of Thresholds: Thresholds are introduced with respect to the climatic distances on the PCA space to ascertain similar climatic conditions.
Velocity Maps Calculation: Subsequently, maps corresponding to forward veloci-ties and backward velocities are generated.
Source: Kotta et al. (2024) Ecological toolkit (ESE1) for MPAs prioritization and networking. Deliverable – D3.4., under the WP3 of MSP4BIO project (GA n° 101060707)